The 2026 Landlord Exit Calculator: CFK vs. Rehab vs. List vs. Sell As-Is (With Real Net Examples)

What This Guide Does (and Doesn’t) Do

This guide prices reality—not marketing. It turns your exit decision into a math problem you can actually solve. We model cash-for-keys timelines, rehab scope ranges, commissions and concessions, carrying costs, fall-through risk, and the cost of time. We also share scripts, checklists, and real-world case studies. What we won’t do is promise a miracle listing in a soft submarket, or pretend a heavy rehab always pays. When you’re ready to see options for your address, get a documented offer or review How It Works.

Net vs. Sticker: The Four Costs Owners Undervalue

1) Time eats quietly. Every month you carry a property you’re paying taxes, insurance, utilities, HOA, interest, lawn, and opportunity cost. A “small” DOM miss, stacked with a re-list or repair delay, quickly dominates the spreadsheet. See rate timing effects in Mortgage Rates at Yearly Lows — Playbook.

2) Risk is the probability-weighted cost of things going sideways: financing fall-through, low appraisal, re-inspection failures, weather, contractor schedules, material backorders, or tenant access hurdles. Treat these as line items, not surprises.

3) Scope expands. Rehab budgets don’t just grow; they grow non-linearly when you uncover systems issues. That’s why we default to a conservative overrun sensitivity (+/-10–20%).

4) Concessions are the quiet haircut—seller credits after inspection, minor repairs, appliance swaps, closing cost help. Add a realistic concession rate, even in “balanced” markets. Curious why cash is more common? Read The Rise of Cash Offers (2025). Ready to compare your options? Get your offer.

Risk Taxonomy: Price the Path, Not the Dream

• Financing/Appraisal: low appraisal delta; buyer DTI; lender overlays; condo/project approvals.
• Inspection: structural, roof, water intrusion, electrical panels, galvanized supply, cast iron drains, aluminum wiring, knob-and-tube.
• Permitting: prior unpermitted work, open permits, historic districts, flood zones.
• Market Micro-drift: a long DOM in your micro-zip can flip leverage mid-escrow.
• Logistics: tenant access, estate coordination, out-of-state signers, POA validity, wire timing.

Each risk can be priced as an expected deduction (probability × cost). For example, a 30% chance of a $7,500 roof concession is a $2,250 expected hit. Add these to your listing path; your cash path already internalizes them in the offer. At closing, understand deed differences with Quitclaim vs. Warranty Deed (2026).

CFK (Cash-for-Keys) as a Calendar Weapon

CFK is a voluntary agreement to regain possession on a specific date in exchange for money and/or moving help. It’s not about “rewarding” a bad tenant; it’s about buying back time and removing uncertainty. The calculator treats CFK as: CFK amount + missed rent/legal + short holding to the vacate date, then you choose the retail or cash exit. If you’re weighing CFK vs. immediate sale, we can model both.

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Rehab Scope Library: What Actually Moves Value

Systems first (roof, HVAC, electrical, plumbing, structure, water). Cosmetics only after systems stabilize resale risk. Kitchen/bath upgrades materially affect retail value in mainstream neighborhoods; flooring + interior paint lift show-ability; exterior paint + landscaping help curb appeal more than most owners expect.

• Turn-key lift: paint + LVP + lighting + hardware = fast ROI in entry-level areas.
• Mid-range: kitchen doors/paint + counters + mid-appliance bundle + bath refresh.
• Heavy: structural, foundation underpinning, sewer line, full MEP re-work—long lead times and high contingency.

Use the calculator’s overrun slider to reflect the reality that scopes grow as you open walls. If a faster path makes sense, request a cash offer.

Sensitivity Deep-Dive: DOM & Overruns

Two levers dominate: DOM (days-on-market) and overruns. Increase DOM by 1 month in your inputs and watch listing net slide as carrying compounds. Push overrun +10% and note how the rehab path responds non-linearly. In soft submarkets or winter seasons, those two alone can flip the decision toward certainty. When in doubt, build two runs, then compare with a documented cash option. More context on timing here: Mortgage Rates at Yearly Lows.

Three Real-World Case Studies

Case A — Tenant Issue, Solid Bones (Sunbelt SFR)

ARV $315k; light systems, heavy cosmetics; missed rent $3k; CFK took 12 days at $800. Listing net modeled at ~$259k. CFK→light-make-ready net modeled ~$257k. Cash offer landed at $258k. Seller chose cash for certainty and speed—near tie on net, zero headache. If you’re in a similar spot, get an offer and compare.

Case B — Major Systems (Rust-belt Duplex)

ARV $225k; cast iron drains + roof + panel swap; tenant access limited. Rehab path volatile (overrun risk). Modeled cash at ~$168k. Listing after heavy rehab modeled ~$171k but with 4–5 months of calendar risk. Owner picked cash—capital redeployed faster. For why certainty is trending, see The Rise of Cash Offers (2025).

Case C — Turn-Key Condo (Hot Micro-Market)

ARV $410k; HOA healthy; comps tight. Listing net exceeded cash by ~8% with <2 months DOM. Seller listed and won—our team cheered them on. The right answer is the one your net proves.

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