We don’t guess. We model.
In short: we turn “we’ll see what the investor says” into math you can see. The more certainty we share with title, lenders, and buyers, the more upside we can keep in your column.
Every offer you see from us includes a Risk Cost Index (RCI) line-item — our name for the Certainty Discount. It’s not a junk fee; it’s the cost of us “buying” the risk from you.
- See exactly how much of your price is “risk discount,” not mystery margin.
- Compare Cash vs Partner Sale (Novation) with RCI attached to each path.
- Toggle simple tasks (ID, title, vacancy, minor repairs) and watch your estimated net move.
Based on pilot data across Phoenix, Minneapolis–St. Paul, and Orlando (n = 127 transactions, 2025 YTD). Individual results vary by market and property.
What is the Risk Cost Index (RCI) — our Certainty Discount?
In simple terms, RCI is the “Certainty Discount.” It’s the part of your price that pays us to take on risk, friction, and “what-ifs” so you don’t have to. When there are fewer unknowns—clean title, clear occupancy, realistic repair plan—that discount shrinks and your estimated net goes up.
- Market Strength Score: stronger market usually means we can make a stronger offer.
- Complexity Score: more moving parts means a bigger discount; simplifying the deal helps your net.
- Certainty Discount Score (RCI): higher score = bigger discount; lower score = better net to you.
- Put differently: we’re buying the risk from you at a discount so you can move on with less drama.
For partners and analysts, here’s how we model RCI under the hood and how it flows into the Certainty Adjustment on your offer.
Plain-English formula (with the “So what?”)
- LESI (Market Stability Score): fLESI = 1 − (LESI ÷ 100) — higher LESI means a more stable local market, so we can usually make a stronger offer.
- FOS (Friction of Sale Score): fFOS = FOS ÷ 100 — higher FOS means more moving parts (title, occupancy, repairs), so the discount has to be bigger.
- Add-ons: TitleRisk, OccupancyRisk, RepairVolatility, LiquidityShock (0–1) — these capture property-specific “gotchas” that can slow or kill a closing.
Composite: RCI = Σ(weights × factors) + (market × friction interaction). Method public; parameters private to protect accuracy and fairness.
What does RCI actually change for you?
Your Certainty Adjustment is tied directly to RCI. When you lower risk (ID verification, prelim title, vacancy, minor repairs), your RCI drops and your estimated net improves.
- Cash Offer: fastest path; largest Certainty Discount (RCI adjustment).
- Partner Sale (Novation): joint sale structure; smaller discount; net is often above cash while remaining below a typical as-is list estimate.
Offer Explorer — Cash vs Partner Sale (Novation) with a visible Certainty Discount
This interactive demo mirrors our live pricing model. Every checkbox below is something you control. Toggle tasks and adjust your priorities to see how completing them reduces your RCI Certainty Discount and raises your Estimated Net in real time.
On your phone these cards are stacked. Scroll down to compare the Cash Offer vs the Partner Sale side by side.
Cash Offer
Fastest path • largest Certainty DiscountPartner Sale (Novation)
Joint sale • smaller Certainty DiscountWhat-If: lower your risk & improve your net
Every checkbox below is something you control. Toggle tasks and adjust your priorities to see how completing them reduces your RCI Certainty Discount and raises your Estimated Net.
Cash and Partner Sale are currently similar in this base scenario.
This gap is driven mostly by differences in the Certainty Discount (RCI) applied to each path.
Guardrails: Partner Sale (Novation) net remains below a typical as-is list estimate and typically above a cash net. All figures illustrative, subject to inspection and title.
“I could finally see why the number moved—and what I could do about it.” — Homeowner, Phoenix
Lower your RCI, raise your net
Inside your secure portal you’ll see Readiness Tasks with the Certainty Discount impact of each step (for example, ID verified: RCI ↓ 0.03). Complete tasks → lower risk → smaller discount → better net.
- ID verification
- Preliminary title pull
- Vacant at close confirmation
- Minor repairs completed
Fewer emails, faster disbursements
We connect directly with title partners via signed webhooks. Milestones update automatically (search complete, payoff received, clear-to-close, recording), lowering friction and fallouts.
Ops benefits: fewer surprises, clearer ETAs, faster time-to-cash.
RCI-powered closings cut median time-to-close by 5 days
Across Phoenix, Minneapolis–St. Paul, and Orlando pilots, tying a transparent Certainty Adjustment to measured execution risk—and surfacing seller tasks in a portal—reduced median time-to-close and fallouts while increasing task completion.
- −5 days median time-to-close (from 32 → 27 days)
- −15% deal fallout rate (QoQ)
- +11% seller task completion
“I could finally see why the number moved—and what I could do about it.” — Homeowner, Phoenix
“Webhooks replaced a dozen emails. Our payoff cycle is faster and cleaner.” — Title Partner Lead, Orlando
Ready to see your numbers in real time?
Jump straight into the Offer Explorer and see how RCI, certainty, and simple readiness tasks move your Cash and Partner Sale (Novation) nets—before you talk to anyone.
Frequently asked questions
Is RCI a fee?
No. RCI is a certainty discount. As measured risk drops, so does the discount—raising your net.
Can I see the model weights?
We publish the method and keep individual weights private to protect accuracy, stability, and fairness over time.
Why is the Partner Sale (Novation) often higher than Cash?
Because we manage execution risk together, allowing a smaller Certainty Discount (RCI adjustment) than cash while staying below a typical as-is list estimate.
Do tasks really change my offer?
Yes. ID verification, prelim title, vacancy, and minor repairs reduce measured risk (FOS, title, occupancy), lowering RCI and improving your estimated net.
When you can see the math, you can choose the timeline.
Compare Cash vs Partner Sale (Novation) with a transparent Certainty Discount (RCI) line-item. No surprises. No pop-ups. Just the math, the trade-offs, and a team that actually underwrites execution risk.
Compliance: We minimize PII, log each computation, and maintain opt-out/erasure workflows. “Local Home Buyers USA — powered by the research of PropTechUSA.ai.”
Research Hub — Indices, Methods & Transparency
Explore the indices and pricing rails powering Local Home Buyers USA. We don’t guess. We model — then expose the math for sellers, partners, and regulators.
Unified PropTechUSA.ai Net Offer Sheet
How our indices come together into a single, seller-facing offer with transparent line-items and guardrails.
Buyer Demand Index (BDI)
Measures local absorption and buyer intensity to inform timelines and pricing power.
Partnership Value Index (PVI): Novation vs Cash
Quantifies the value unlocked by a Novation partnership relative to an as-is cash sale.
Closing Risk Score (FOS)
Estimates real-world hurdles to closing (ID, title, occupancy) and shows how tasks lower risk.
How We Price Risk (RCI)
Composite execution-risk score that drives the transparent Certainty Adjustment in every offer.
Local Market Transparency Score (LMTS)
Signals clarity of comps, HOA disclosures, and public data—improving expectations and timelines.
Local Economic Stability Index (LESI)
Macro-local health: employment, permits, inflation, delinquencies—expressed as a stability score.
Friction-to-Offer Score (Methods)
Implementation notes and lead-gen calculator patterns for deploying FOS in production.
Renovation Value Index (RVI)
Models expected value from targeted repairs vs timeline risk under Novation or cash.
Cost of Certainty — Pricing Time & Risk
How time-to-close and execution risk translate into a fair, transparent adjustment.
Beyond Zestimate — Anxiety Premium (Hyperlocal Sentiment)
Captures block-level sentiment and uncertainty that drive list-to-close variance.
Research Data Catalog & License
Datasets, sources, and licensing (CC BY 4.0) for transparency and reproducibility.
