Cycle Shift 2026: Fixer-Upper Liquidity Console

TL;DR: In This 2026 Cycle, Novation Quietly Wins for Fixer-Uppers

• Macro fear is loud (rates, insurance, taxes, recession headlines), but your actual net is driven more by condition, timeline, and deal structure than by what the news cycle says.
• The biggest damage lands on homes that need work. Retail buyers see risk. Lenders see collateral problems. That's where a novation / hybrid exit can capture post-renovation value without dumping all the risk back on the seller.
• In this console, once the condition slider falls below ~0.85, the novation path is engineered to out-net cash and MLS—because that's where the right partners, capital, and contractors matter more than paint and granite.
• For "HGTV ready" homes, a clean MLS listing still often wins. For "needs work" homes, novation removes friction taxes while still letting end buyers use financing.

We use a simple Home-Sale Stress Index (HSS) that blends three forces: rate volatility, payment shock (taxes + insurance), and buyer fallout after an offer is accepted. In 2026, stress peaks where homes need work and buyers are already stretched.

Set a realistic as-is value band, adjust condition, and dial your local HSS. The console then compares three paths side by side.

Important: Once condition drops below ~0.85, the math explicitly tilts the net proceeds so novation out-nets both cash and MLS by about 1–3% of AVM. This is illustrative only, not a guarantee or legal/financial advice.

The Math Under the Console (Plain English)

The engine is deliberately simple. The goal is not to out-model Wall Street—it's to make the trade-offs visibly obvious for real sellers living through a cycle where the gap between turnkey and fixer-upper keeps widening.

AVM = As-Is Value (slider)
c   = Condition score (0.6–1.0)
HSS = Home-Sale Stress (3–9)
API = Local demand / absorption (35–95)

CashSpread(AVM, c, API, HSS)
  = 11% base discount
    + 11% × (1 − c)   // more work = bigger discount
    + API & HSS tweaks

HybridSpread
  = CashSpread
    − 3.5 pts         // less discount than pure cash
    + small HSS tweak

MLSSpread
  = 2% base "haircut"
    + small API tweak
    − HSS relief (when buyers are strong)

// Condition-based "needs work" band
needs_work(c) = clamp((0.85 − c) / 0.25, 0, 1)

/* Raw nets from the engine */
Net_cash   = AVM × (1 − CashSpread − 2%)
Net_hybrid = AVM × (1 − HybridSpread − 4%)
Net_mls    = AVM × (1 − MLSSpread − 8%)

// Novation bonus when the home needs work:
if needs_work(c) > 0:
  best_other   = max(Net_cash, Net_mls)
  novation_bps = 1% + 2% × needs_work(c)
  Net_hybrid   = best_other + AVM × novation_bps

Turn the Console Into a Real Offer

If you're staring at a home that needs work—or a situation where you cannot afford a busted MLS listing in this 2026 cycle—this is what we do every day. We run the same type of math, but layer in real-world details: contractor bids, local buyer pools, and investor capital that can move at the speed your life requires.

Local Home Buyers USA is a nationwide home-buying company founded by Justin Erickson. We operate in all 50 states, with local partners and a research arm branded as PropTechUSA.ai. Together, we turn cycle-shift math into real-world offers.