The 2026 Affordability Tipping Point: What Mortgage Rate Unlocks Buyers in Every State
We measure, not guess. This console shows the affordability tipping rate—the first 30-yr fixed rate where a typical household’s PITI fits a conservative budget in each state.
- 50-state interactive dataset
- CSV import/export
- DTI 30% • Down 10% • Taxes/Insurance editable
Educational research console — aggregated data only. Use this page to compare listing vs. certainty-first cash options.
Locked-in buyers. Rising carry. Want a certainty benchmark?
Run the affordability engine for your state, then get a side-by-side: list & wait vs. a 7–14 day certainty option from Local Home Buyers USA.
What This Tells Sellers (in 30 seconds)
Affordability is a carrying-cost equation, not just a headline rate. If your market is within ~75 bps of tipping, disciplined pricing and prep can pull buyers forward now. If you’re 150–200 bps out, compare “wait & carry” vs. a 7–14 day certain exit.
Live Mortgage Rate Tracker
National averages refresh frequently. Use this as context alongside the affordability tape and state table below.
Why “Tipping Rate” Beats Headlines: A High-Level Guide for Sellers and Market Pros
Set Assumptions & Run Scenarios
Down payment percentage applied to the purchase price to calculate loan amount.
Share of monthly income allocated to housing costs (PITI). Default is 30 percent.
Annual property tax rate as a percent of value, prorated monthly.
Annual homeowner’s insurance as a percent of value, prorated monthly. Increase to approximate PMI or HOA.
Base 30-year fixed mortgage rate used to create the scenario.
Bulk-Fill Medians (CSV Paste)
Format: State,Price,Income. Header optional. Commas and $ are fine.
Affordability Tipping Rate — 50-State Dataset
“Distance to Tipping” = (Tipping Rate − Scenario Rate) in bps. Green = affordable at/under scenario; Red = needs rate relief.
| State | Median Price ($) | Median HH Income ($) | Tipping Rate (%) | Distance to Tipping (bps) | State Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | — | — | Open | ||
| Alaska | — | — | Open | ||
| Arizona | — | — | Open | ||
| Arkansas | — | — | Open | ||
| California | — | — | Open | ||
| Colorado | — | — | Open | ||
| Connecticut | — | — | Open | ||
| Delaware | — | — | Open | ||
| Florida | — | — | Open | ||
| Georgia | — | — | Open | ||
| Hawaii | — | — | Open | ||
| Idaho | — | — | Open | ||
| Illinois | — | — | Open | ||
| Indiana | — | — | Open | ||
| Iowa | — | — | Open | ||
| Kansas | — | — | Open | ||
| Kentucky | — | — | Open | ||
| Louisiana | — | — | Open | ||
| Maine | — | — | Open | ||
| Maryland | — | — | Open | ||
| Massachusetts | — | — | Open | ||
| Michigan | — | — | Open | ||
| Minnesota | — | — | Open | ||
| Mississippi | — | — | Open | ||
| Missouri | — | — | Open | ||
| Montana | — | — | Open | ||
| Nebraska | — | — | Open | ||
| Nevada | — | — | Open | ||
| New Hampshire | — | — | Open | ||
| New Jersey | — | — | Open | ||
| New Mexico | — | — | Open | ||
| New York | — | — | Open | ||
| North Carolina | — | — | Open | ||
| North Dakota | — | — | Open | ||
| Ohio | — | — | Open | ||
| Oklahoma | — | — | Open | ||
| Oregon | — | — | Open | ||
| Pennsylvania | — | — | Open | ||
| Rhode Island | — | — | Open | ||
| South Carolina | — | — | Open | ||
| South Dakota | — | — | Open | ||
| Tennessee | — | — | Open | ||
| Texas | — | — | Open | ||
| Utah | — | — | Open | ||
| Vermont | — | — | Open | ||
| Virginia | — | — | Open | ||
| Washington | — | — | Open | ||
| West Virginia | — | — | Open | ||
| Wisconsin | — | — | Open | ||
| Wyoming | — | — | Open |
Turn Insight into Action
- < 75 bps from tipping: Go now.
- 75–150 bps: Track months-of-supply.
- ≥ 150 bps: Compare “wait & carry” vs. 7–14 day sale.
Adjust Insurance% upward in coastal/cat-exposed states. Raise Tax% for high-tax counties.
About the Author
Founder & nationwide operator. Justin leads acquisitions and data strategy across 40+ markets, applying affordability and equity analytics to deliver speed, certainty, and transparent options for sellers—including probate, pre-foreclosure, and as-is sales.
Method (Plain English)
We compute monthly P&I using the standard 30-year amortization formula, then layer in estimated property taxes and insurance as percentages of value. The tipping rate is the first point where that PITI fits a conservative share of household income (DTI cap). You can change every assumption above and reload the table in real time.
Sources & References
Public sources; assumptions disclosed. Replace medians via CSV for production runs.
See Your Options (7–14 Day Close Possible)
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Buyer Demand Index (BDI)
Measures local absorption and buyer intensity to inform timelines and pricing power.
Partnership Value Index (PVI): Novation vs Cash
Quantifies the value unlocked by a Novation partnership relative to an as-is cash sale.
Closing Risk Score (FOS)
Estimates real-world hurdles to closing (ID, title, occupancy) and shows how tasks lower risk.
How We Price Risk (RCI)
Composite execution-risk score that drives the transparent Certainty Adjustment in every offer.
Local Market Transparency Score (LMTS)
Signals clarity of comps, HOA disclosures, and public data—improving expectations and timelines.
Local Economic Stability Index (LESI)
Macro-local health: employment, permits, inflation, delinquencies—expressed as a stability score.
Friction-to-Offer Score (Methods)
Implementation notes and lead-gen calculator patterns for deploying FOS in production.
Renovation Value Index (RVI)
Models expected value from targeted repairs vs timeline risk under Novation or cash.
Cost of Certainty — Pricing Time & Risk
How time-to-close and execution risk translate into a fair, transparent adjustment.
Beyond Zestimate — Anxiety Premium (Hyperlocal Sentiment)
Captures block-level sentiment and uncertainty that drive list-to-close variance.
Research Data Catalog & License
Datasets, sources, and licensing (CC BY 4.0) for transparency and reproducibility.