The 2026 Affordability Tipping Point: What Mortgage Rate Unlocks Buyers in Every State
We measure, not guess. Explore the real affordability tipping rate — the first 30-yr fixed rate where a typical household’s PITI fits a conservative budget in each state.
- 50-state interactive dataset
- CSV import/export
- DTI 30% • Down 10% • Taxes/Insurance editable
What This Tells Sellers (in 30 seconds)
Affordability is a carrying-cost equation, not just a headline rate… If your market is within ~75 bps of tipping, disciplined pricing and prep can pull buyers forward now. If you’re 150–200 bps out, compare “wait & carry” vs. a 7–14 day certain exit.
Live Mortgage Rate Tracker
National averages refresh frequently. Use this as context alongside the table below.
Why “Tipping Rate” Beats Headlines: A High-Level Guide for Sellers and Market Pros
Set Assumptions & Run Scenarios
Down payment percentage applied to the purchase price to calculate loan amount.
Share of monthly income allocated to housing costs (PITI). Default is 30 percent.
Annual property tax rate as a percent of value, prorated monthly.
Annual homeowner’s insurance as a percent of value, prorated monthly. Increase to approximate PMI or HOA.
Base 30-year fixed mortgage rate used to create the scenario.
Bulk-Fill Medians (CSV Paste)
Format: State,Price,Income. Header optional. Commas and $ are fine.
Affordability Tipping Rate — 50-State Dataset
“Distance to Tipping” = (Tipping Rate − Scenario Rate) in bps. Green = affordable at/under scenario; Red = needs rate relief.
| State | Median Price ($) | Median HH Income ($) | Tipping Rate (%) | Distance to Tipping (bps) | State Page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | — | — | Open | ||
| Alaska | — | — | Open | ||
| Arizona | — | — | Open | ||
| Arkansas | — | — | Open | ||
| California | — | — | Open | ||
| Colorado | — | — | Open | ||
| Connecticut | — | — | Open | ||
| Delaware | — | — | Open | ||
| Florida | — | — | Open | ||
| Georgia | — | — | Open | ||
| Hawaii | — | — | Open | ||
| Idaho | — | — | Open | ||
| Illinois | — | — | Open | ||
| Indiana | — | — | Open | ||
| Iowa | — | — | Open | ||
| Kansas | — | — | Open | ||
| Kentucky | — | — | Open | ||
| Louisiana | — | — | Open | ||
| Maine | — | — | Open | ||
| Maryland | — | — | Open | ||
| Massachusetts | — | — | Open | ||
| Michigan | — | — | Open | ||
| Minnesota | — | — | Open | ||
| Mississippi | — | — | Open | ||
| Missouri | — | — | Open | ||
| Montana | — | — | Open | ||
| Nebraska | — | — | Open | ||
| Nevada | — | — | Open | ||
| New Hampshire | — | — | Open | ||
| New Jersey | — | — | Open | ||
| New Mexico | — | — | Open | ||
| New York | — | — | Open | ||
| North Carolina | — | — | Open | ||
| North Dakota | — | — | Open | ||
| Ohio | — | — | Open | ||
| Oklahoma | — | — | Open | ||
| Oregon | — | — | Open | ||
| Pennsylvania | — | — | Open | ||
| Rhode Island | — | — | Open | ||
| South Carolina | — | — | Open | ||
| South Dakota | — | — | Open | ||
| Tennessee | — | — | Open | ||
| Texas | — | — | Open | ||
| Utah | — | — | Open | ||
| Vermont | — | — | Open | ||
| Virginia | — | — | Open | ||
| Washington | — | — | Open | ||
| West Virginia | — | — | Open | ||
| Wisconsin | — | — | Open | ||
| Wyoming | — | — | Open |
Turn Insight into Action
- < 75 bps from tipping: Go now.
- 75–150 bps: Track months-of-supply.
- ≥ 150 bps: Compare “wait & carry” vs. 7–14 day sale.
Adjust Insurance% upward in coastal/cat-exposed states. Raise Tax% for high-tax counties.
About the Author
Founder & nationwide operator…
Method (Plain English)
We compute monthly P&I using the standard 30-year amortization formula…
Sources & References
Public sources; assumptions disclosed. Replace medians via CSV for production runs.
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Fresh how-tos and market tips from Local Home Buyers USA.
