Seller Stuck in 2021: Why Buyers Are Walking in a Cooling Market

Short version: 2025 is not 2021. Mortgage rates have eased into the mid-6% range (about 6.27% this week), but that’s still roughly double the pandemic lows, so monthly payments remain heavy. Home-price growth is cooling and the share of listings with price cuts is elevated. Those forces create a buyer mood we call “careful, not desperate.” Result: more negotiations, more second thoughts, and more canceled contracts when sellers refuse to adjust.

At the peak of summer, roughly 58,000 U.S. home-purchase agreements fell apart in July, equal to 15.3% of homes that went under contract — the highest July fallout since Redfin began tracking in 2017. Cancellations were concentrated in Texas and Florida, where buyers have more choices and higher carrying costs.

1) What the data says: buyers are walking more often

Contract fallout hit a record July level. Redfin tallied a 15.3% cancellation rate in July 2025 — about 58k deals — driven by affordability and a cooling psychology. Metros in Texas and Florida led the pack, with San Antonio topping the list at 22.7%, Fort Lauderdale 21.3%, Jacksonville 19.9%, Atlanta 19.7%, and Tampa 19.5%. Source

Price cuts became normal again. Realtor.com reports 17.5% of active listings cut price in March — the highest March share in their dataset since at least 2016 — and reductions stayed elevated into spring. Source

Home-price growth cooled. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index showed a 2.3% YoY national gain in May, down from 2.7% in April — among the slowest prints in roughly two years. Source

Rates eased, but affordability gap remains. Freddie Mac’s PMMS has the 30-year fixed in the mid-6% range, reported around 6.27% this week by major outlets. PMMS

Builders blinked first. NAHB and industry coverage show incentives are widespread and roughly 38–39% of builders have been cutting prices (average ~5–6%), which siphons buyers away from resale listings that won’t budge. Reuters/NAHB • Realtor.com (NAHB)

2) The “2021 anchor”: a psychology that kills deals

Anchoring is clinging to a starting number — like your neighbor’s 2021 sale price — and treating it as gospel. Sellers who anchor to peak-cycle comps often overprice by a few percent and assume “the right buyer” will show up. In a cooling market, that buyer doesn’t rush, and your first two weeks (when the listing gets the most eyeballs) slip by without strong offers. What follows is often death by a thousand paper cuts: a small reduction, then another; an inspection credit; a financing extension; then a cancellation while you’re 45–60 days older. Each cut becomes a billboard saying “We’ll take less.”

Bottom line: in metros with elevated fallout (San Antonio, Fort Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Tampa), the 2021 anchor is expensive. Use current comps and local proof from sellers like you instead of nostalgia.

3) The only equation buyers care about: the monthly payment

A 30-year fixed at around 6.27% creates a very different payment than ~3% did. Even if your sticker price hasn’t changed, the all-in monthly has. That’s why we see cautious buyer behavior despite some rate relief. Meanwhile, price momentum is softer; Case-Shiller’s 2.3% YoY May print removes the “buy now or be priced out” urgency. If prices aren’t racing away, buyers don’t stretch to “win” — they negotiate, or they walk.

Want to remove friction? Read our remote-closing guide for out-of-state owners and our Senior Sellers Playbook for practical steps that keep deals together.

Next: use the interactive Pricing Reality App below to see, in real dollars, what “trying your number” for a few extra weeks actually costs compared with accepting the offers buyers are already putting on the table.

4) Inspections, insurance, and the “deal-fatigue” domino

In the frenzy, buyers waived contingencies. In a cooler cycle, they treat inspections like an options contract on your house. If inspections reveal a near-end-of-life roof or aging HVAC, they’ll re-trade the price — and if you resist, cancellations spike. Builders blunt this with rate buydowns, credits, and price cuts; industry surveys show incentives are widespread and roughly two-fifths of builders cut prices this year. Resale listings that won’t play ball lose buyers to new construction.

Insurance is the other wild card in places like Florida and along the Gulf/Atlantic coasts. When a premium quote jumps at underwriting, it can torpedo DTI and confidence at the eleventh hour — another reason buyers walk in those markets. If your county’s median days on market trends above national, expect tougher negotiations and more walkaways.

Pre-disclose known issues, package recent service receipts, and consider a credit menu (e.g., $6,000 toward rate buydown, closing costs, or repair escrow). It keeps deals from melting at inspection.

5) Where walkaways spiked (and why)

Texas & Florida led cancellation rates. Redfin’s metro list shows: San Antonio (22.7%), Fort Lauderdale (21.3%), Jacksonville (19.9%), Atlanta (19.7%), Tampa (19.5%). These Sun Belt markets have abundant new construction and rising inventories, which give buyers choices and confidence to walk away. Local proof matters: browse our state-by-state reviews and see how we’ve structured credits, timelines, and as-is closings to hold deals together in tough markets.

6) A no-drama strategy for sellers who want certainty

7) The pricing playbook we use with sellers (fast & data-based)

1. Start with absorption, not 2021 comps. If a sizable share of listings are cutting price nationally in spring conditions (e.g., 17.5%), over-listing is a shortcut to weeks of dead air. Realtor.com
2. Track rates weekly. PMMS in the mid-6% range (about 6.27% this week) shapes what buyers can afford — and whether buydowns pencil. Freddie Mac PMMS
3. Watch price momentum (Case-Shiller). Slower YoY gains = less FOMO, more negotiating. S&P DJI press
4. Borrow builder tactics. Temporary buydowns, closing-cost credits, or repair escrows beat a clumsy headline cut. Reuters/NAHB
5. Decide your certainty premium. Compare a fast, certain cash sale vs. a retail listing with 60–90 days of risk. Who we are • Get your offer

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Bottom line

Buyers aren’t flaky — they’re disciplined. With slower price growth, elevated price reductions, and affordability still stretched, buyers say “no” more often. If your goal is certainty, align price to today’s market, reduce friction with credits and clear disclosures, and consider a buyer who can close without drama. If you want a zero-obligation number that lets you compare options apples-to-apples, get your cash offer and keep your timeline in your control.