30-Year Fixed Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US)
Source: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. National average rate for conforming owner-occupied loans.
Dataset: FRED MORTGAGE30US • Updated weekly (typically Thursday).
PropTechUSA.ai Research • Mortgage Spread Watch
Mortgage Rate Spread Watch: 10-Year Treasury vs. 30-Year Fixed
We watch the gap between the 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) and the 30-Year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) so every offer we make is priced to today’s risk, not last quarter’s headlines.
One page, three charts, and a scenario studio: how we tie mortgage spreads to pricing, days-on-market, and cash-offer strategy.
Live Market View
Mortgage & Treasury Trackers
The 30-year fixed rate is basically “10-Year Treasury + risk premium.” We watch both legs of that equation every week before we sign offers.
10-Year Treasury Yield (DGS10)
Source: Federal Reserve H.15 via FRED. Risk-free benchmark lenders price against.
Dataset: FRED DGS10 • Updated daily on business days.
Locally, we overlay these series with PropTechUSA.ai demand and sentiment feeds to decide whether to push list price, lean on concessions, or recommend a fast, firm cash offer instead.
The Core Signal
Mortgage–Treasury Spread at a Glance
Instead of staring at two separate charts, this view pulls both series into one visual. The vertical gap between the 30-Year fixed rate (MORTGAGE30US) and the 10-Year Treasury (DGS10) at any point in time is the spread we track in PropTechUSA.ai.
Interactive Console
Mortgage Spread Scenario Studio
Set today’s 10-Year Treasury (DGS10), the 30-Year fixed rate (MORTGAGE30US), and a target price. The console estimates a sample payment, classifies the spread regime, and shows the play we’d run if this were your house. It’s a teaching tool—not a loan quote or legal advice.
1. Set the Market Tape
Move the 10-Year to match today’s tape (data source: FRED DGS10).
National average 30-Year fixed (FRED MORTGAGE30US / Freddie Mac PMMS).
2. Your Sample Home
We use a 30-year amortization and ignore taxes/insurance here so you can see how the spread alone moves the payment.
3. Regime & Playbook
Regime: Neutral
Spread: — bps — the risk/option premium lenders are charging on top of the 10-Year.
Sample Payment (P&I)
$—/mo
Based on today’s rate and your price/down payment.
Market Regime Note
Neutral
We’re in a neutral spread band. Presentation and certainty matter more than micro price moves.
Play We'd Run
With this spread and price point, we’d lean on a price-tight + terms credit strategy—one clean list price and a small buydown or closing-cost credit. If spreads blow out again, we quote a firm cash offer as the backstop.
Playbook Logic
How We Read the Mortgage–Treasury Spread
In our system, we define the spread as Spread = MORTGAGE30US − DGS10. That premium is how lenders get paid for risk, servicing, and options layered on top of risk-free yields.
- When the spread narrows: lenders are confident, liquidity is better, and buyers suddenly qualify for more house.
- When the spread blows out: stress, volatility, or capital constraints are in play—DOM stretches and price cuts accelerate.
Rule-of-Thumb Spread Zones
- Spread < ~260–280 bps: Healthy/competitive. Faster buyer response, better elasticity.
- ~280–320 bps: Neutral. Emphasize presentation, certainty, and clean terms.
- > 320–350+ bps: Stress. Demand weakens; we either price decisively or recommend a cash exit.
These are practical seller heuristics. Behind the scenes, PropTechUSA.ai uses continuous spreads plus volatility and sentiment feeds to tighten or loosen guardrails on every offer.
Impact on Sellers
What Narrowing vs. Widening Spreads Predict
Narrowing Spread → Green Light
- Signal: Risk premium shrinking; markets are more confident.
- Impact: A given 10-year yield now supports a lower mortgage rate. Buyers regain affordability.
- Move: We favor a price-tight + terms credit approach: light price improvement plus a small credit for buydowns or closing costs.
Widening Spread → Caution Light
- Signal: Lenders want more cushion for volatility, prepayment risk, or capital costs.
- Impact: Payments jump even if Treasuries are flat. DOM and cancellations rise fastest in rate-sensitive bands.
- Move: We shift to decisive price clarity and certainty-heavy terms (inspection caps, appraisal support)—or we step in with a cash option to pull your risk off the table.
In other words: same house, same street, different spread → different playbook. That’s why we run spreads through our underwriting engine before we quote numbers.
Tactical Plays
Seller Playbooks by Spread Regime
Playbook A — Compression for 2+ Weeks
- Re-anchor comps: refresh actives/pendings; ignore stale over-asks from high-spread months.
- Price-tight: one clean adjustment (not death-by-$1k) + strong photos and copy.
- Terms credit: “buyer’s choice” credit: 1-point buydown or $4k closing help.
- Deadline: “All offers reviewed Monday at 5pm” to cluster showings and feedback.
- Backstop: if spreads re-widen and traffic dies, we quote a cash offer to reset your timeline.
Playbook B — Sudden Widening or Shock
- Admit reality fast: one decisive price move plus simpler, cleaner terms.
- Certainty over cosmetics: trade buydowns for inspection/appraisal clarity and flexible closings.
- Liquidity option: when you can’t afford to chase the market, we buy directly with a firm, data-backed offer and clear net sheet.
For Data Nerds
Deep Dive: Why Spreads Exist (and Why They Move)
1) Funding & capital costs. Lenders don’t fund at the 10-year. Warehouse lines, securitization costs, capital buffers, and hedging all stack on top of DGS10.
2) Prepayment/extension (option) risk. A 30-year fixed mortgage embeds a refinance option. Volatility makes that option more expensive, which widens spreads.
3) Credit, servicing, and pipeline hedging. Credit overlays, delinquency expectations, and servicing values change with the cycle. Pipeline hedges to protect locked loans add noise to pricing.
4) Market microstructure. Liquidity in current-coupon MBS, dealer balance sheet capacity, and risk appetite all move the spread—even with flat Treasuries.
Rule-of-Thumb Thresholds for Decisioning
- Spread < ~260–280 bps: Healthy/competitive. Expect faster buyer response. We lean into list-price precision and modest terms credits.
- ~280–320 bps: Neutral. Emphasize presentation, certainty, and clean contingencies; be ready with a small price/terms move.
- > 320–350+ bps: Stress. Demand elasticity weakens; we either cut through with decisive pricing or recommend a cash offer path.
These thresholds are your plain-English dashboard. Under the hood, we track full distributions, volatility regimes, and local sentiment scores.
Seller Actions
Lock in a Firm, Data-Backed Cash Offer
Quick Answers
Mortgage–Treasury Spread FAQ
What exactly is the mortgage–Treasury spread?
It’s the difference between the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate (MORTGAGE30US) and the 10-Year Treasury yield (DGS10). Think of it as the risk and profit layer lenders add on top of the risk-free curve.
Why can spreads move if the 10-Year is flat?
Because lenders are re-pricing volatility, credit, funding, and hedging costs. Even with a steady DGS10, those other inputs can widen or compress the premium.
How often are these data updated?
DGS10 updates daily on business days; MORTGAGE30US updates weekly (typically Thursdays via the Freddie Mac PMMS release). We log changes in our console and adjust strategy each week.
Does the spread really affect my time-on-market?
Yes—especially for rate-sensitive buyers. Narrower spreads pull offers forward; wider spreads slow traffic and stretch DOM. That’s why we don’t look at price alone when we advise on list vs. cash.
What’s the simplest smart move when spreads compress?
For two weeks of compression, we usually recommend a price-tight + terms credit tactic—or, if you’re over the process, we quote a cash offer so you can exit while other sellers are still re-pricing.
Weekly Signal
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One short email per week: the mortgage–Treasury spread, what it means for seller leverage, and the exact move we’d make if your house were ours.