Local Economic Stability Index (LESI) — Make the Safest Move in Your Market
LESI distills Labor Stability, Housing Momentum, and Consumer Risk into a single score. Sellers use it to compare listing versus a guaranteed cash offer—factually, not emotionally.
Authored by Local Home Buyers USA — Research (PropTechUSA.ai)
Fewer Surprises
LESI flags rising unemployment, delinquencies, or cooling permits before they hit headlines.
List vs. Cash—With Math
Pair your LESI tier with a Certainty Premium band so you compare apples to apples.
Transparent Methodology
Built on public U.S. datasets and a documented, repeatable scoring model.
How We Calculate LESI
LESI is a 0–100 index combining three sub-indexes. Each metric is normalized to its 5-year local range, directionally adjusted (higher-is-better or lower-is-better), smoothed with a 3-month average, and bucketed:
- Stability (45%): Unemployment trend, Non-farm payroll employment, Job openings vs. hires gap.
- Momentum (30%): Housing permits, Construction spending, New single-family sales.
- Risk (25%): Mortgage/credit delinquencies, Regional CPI, Municipal debt per capita.
Scoring Tiers
Very Stable
Stable
Mixed
Unstable
High Risk
Suggested Certainty Premium
A pricing band used to compare listing vs. a guaranteed cash offer:
- 80–100 → 0–2%
- 65–79 → 1–3%
- 50–64 → 2–5%
- 35–49 → 4–7%
- 0–34 → 6–10%
Gauge Preview
Example visualization. Your personalized report uses your ZIP-to-MSA data.
Get Your Personalized LESI + Cash-vs-List Comparison
Enter your ZIP and email. We’ll send a concise PDF with your local score, tier, and an apples-to-apples net comparison vs. a guaranteed cash offer.
Make a Data-Certain Decision
LESI helps sellers avoid costly surprises (price cuts, lender fallout, appraisal misses). It also helps justify certainty: when risk rises, a guaranteed cash offer can net more after time, fees, and concessions.
Methods at a glance
- 5-year rolling min-max normalization per geography
- Seasonally adjusted where available; otherwise YoY trends
- 3-month smoothing for noisy series (permits, sales)
- Metro → county → state fallback with proportional reweights
- Outlier clamp at 3.5σ; low-confidence flag on missing data
Sellers
Know when listing risk rises and where a cash offer nets better after time/repairs.
Agents
Set expectations with a neutral economic context—reduce fallout.
Investors
Screen metros by Stability vs. Risk to prioritize pipeline.
U.S. Public Datasets We Use
All government sources are public-domain unless noted. We combine them into our authored LESI Methodology Dataset and research notes.
- BLS JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover) — openings & hires rates.
- BLS LAUS/CES — unemployment rate, non-farm payroll employment.
- Census Building Permits Survey — housing units authorized.
- U.S. Census & HUD — new single-family home sales (national/region).
- Construction Spending (Census) — total spend (state/metro proxies).
- Regional CPI (BLS) — inflation by metro/region.
- Mortgage & Consumer Delinquencies — FRB/industry releases (state/MSA).
- Municipal Debt per Capita — CAFRs/state datasets (where available).
- Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes — methodology reference.
LESI compilation © Local Home Buyers USA — Research (PropTechUSA.ai) • Licensed CC BY 4.0. For licensing/API access, email [email protected].
Dataset Catalog & How We Use Each Source
- BLS JOLTS — Job Openings & Labor Turnover
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What it measures: Job openings, hires, quits, and separations—signals of labor demand/supply balance.
Geography & cadence: National, regional, and selected state/industry series; monthly with a ~1–2 month lag.
How we use it: The openings–hires gap feeds Stability (structural tightness vs. slack). A large persistent gap can indicate mismatch risk.
Notes: Industry mix matters; metro coverage is limited—state or national proxies may be applied.
- BLS LAUS / CES — Unemployment & Payroll Employment
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What it measures: LAUS provides local unemployment rates; CES tracks non-farm payroll employment levels.
Geography & cadence: State, metro (MSA), county (LAUS) and state/metro/industry (CES); monthly, seasonally adjusted where available.
How we use it: Unemployment trend (3-month %Δ) and payroll level (5-year normalized) anchor the Stability sub-index.
Notes: Small-area estimates can be revised; we smooth with a 3-month average and use YoY when seasonality is a concern.
- Census Building Permits Survey (BPS)
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What it measures: Number of new privately-owned housing units authorized by permits.
Geography & cadence: Places, counties, MSAs, states, U.S.; monthly, preliminary then revised.
How we use it: A leading signal in Momentum (future supply and builder confidence), normalized to each area’s 5-year range.
Notes: Small jurisdictions can be noisy; we smooth and aggregate to MSA when appropriate.
- Census Construction Spending (C-30)
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What it measures: Value put in place for residential and nonresidential construction.
Geography & cadence: U.S. and state-level detail by sector; monthly with revisions.
How we use it: Tracks current activity in Momentum, proxied to the metro via state trends when metro data aren’t published.
Notes: Nominal dollars; we reference inflation context via regional CPI when interpreting.
- New Residential Sales (Census/HUD)
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What it measures: Sales of new single-family houses, median prices, and inventory.
Geography & cadence: U.S. + four Census regions (NE, MW, S, W); monthly with sampling error bands.
How we use it: Regional proxy for new-home demand in the Momentum bucket when local series are unavailable.
Notes: Regional proxy may dilute very local effects; we combine with permits and construction to triangulate.
- BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) — Regional/Metro
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What it measures: Price changes for a market basket of goods and services (inflation).
Geography & cadence: U.S., regions, and selected large MSAs; monthly or bi-monthly depending on metro.
How we use it: Feeds the Risk sub-index—higher local inflation reduces purchasing power and can raise default risk.
Notes: Smaller MSAs use regional CPI; we flag when metro-level CPI isn’t available.
- Mortgage & Consumer Delinquency Series
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What it measures: Share of accounts late or in default (e.g., 30/60/90+ days past due) across mortgages and consumer credit.
Geography & cadence: Typically state and MSA via Federal Reserve releases and industry data; monthly or quarterly.
How we use it: Core to Risk; rising delinquencies indicate financial stress and foreclosure risk.
Notes: Sources may vary in coverage; we document the feed and reweight if a series is missing for a geography.
- Municipal Debt per Capita
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What it measures: Outstanding debt obligations divided by population for cities/counties/states.
Geography & cadence: City/county CAFRs (Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports) and state finance datasets; annual.
How we use it: Part of Risk—higher local debt burdens can imply future tax/fee pressure that weighs on property values.
Notes: Accounting practices differ; we normalize across time and flag incomparable series.
- Philadelphia Fed — State Coincident Indexes
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What it measures: A composite of payroll employment, unemployment rate, average hours worked, and wage data to track current state-level economic conditions.
Geography & cadence: States; monthly.
How we use it: Methodology reference and secondary context check against our Stability and Momentum signals.
Notes: State-level; metro granularity still relies on BLS/Census series.
All listed government datasets are public-domain. Our compilation, normalization, and LESI scoring are authored by Local Home Buyers USA — Research (PropTechUSA.ai) and licensed under CC BY 4.0.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Local Economic Stability Index (LESI)?
LESI is a 0–100 score that blends labor stability, housing momentum, and consumer risk so homeowners can compare listing vs. a guaranteed cash offer with data, not guesswork.
How often is LESI updated?
Monthly, with some quarterly series forward-filled until the next release. We apply 3-month smoothing to reduce noise.
Where does the data come from?
From U.S. public sources (BLS, Census, Philadelphia Fed, HUD) and standard industry delinquency series. We author the compilation, normalization, and scoring.
Will my score guarantee a specific price?
No. LESI is an economic context tool. It informs risk and timeline. Your property’s condition and micro-market still matter.
What is a “Certainty Premium”?
An estimate (in %) that helps compare net proceeds from a traditional listing to a guaranteed cash offer in your market conditions.
Real-World Seller Insights
Fresh how-tos and market tips from Local Home Buyers USA.
