Is Your Home an “Easy Sell”? FOS (Closing Risk Score) — Complete Guide & Calculator
Local Home Buyers USA — powered by PropTechUSA.ai • Updated Nov 15, 2025 • [email protected] • 1-800-858-0588
FOS is your home’s closing-friction score on a 0–100 scale. You don’t have to touch a formula: lower score = fewer moving parts, less fall-through risk, and a cleaner path to the finish line. Behind the scenes, we convert that friction into timelines and dollars with CoCI, so you can compare 7 / 14 / 21-day options in a simple net sheet instead of a spreadsheet.
- Seller view: plain-English explanations, examples, and live sliders.
- Analyst view: formulas, feature engineering, and validation (inside “Analyst view” toggles you can ignore if you want).
Why listings stall (and nets shrink)
Top-line price hides what quietly kills net: time, repairs, and risk. Financing adds contingencies; appraisals miss; title and HOA docs drag; access is messy. Every extra day adds taxes, insurance, utilities, and stress. FOS quantifies those frictions up front; CoCI then prices certainty for fast paths (7 / 14 / 21 days) so you see the trade-off in one place.
FOS, RCI & CoCI — quick map (plain English)
Before we touch any symbols, here’s how the pieces work together. Think of it as your no-jargon legend for the rest of this page.
What it answers: “How easy is this home to close?”
FOS rolls up 10 domains (condition, access, title, demand, etc.) into a 0–100 closing-friction score. Lower FOS = simpler file, fewer surprises, faster path.
What it answers: “How much risk & complexity has to be priced in?”
RCI is the pricing lens: it takes risk, complexity, and execution uncertainty and shows how much “room” we need to reserve inside the offer structure.
What it answers: “What does speed & certainty cost (or save) me?”
CoCI turns FOS + RCI into clear dollar and day trade-offs across 7 / 14 / 21-day options — the same structure used in the net-sheet preview below.
If you remember one thing: FOS = how hard the closing is, RCI = how we price that difficulty, CoCI = how speed vs. certainty shows up in your net. You never have to calculate any of these by hand — the tools do it for you.
FOS model & variables (max 100)
At a high level, FOS simply asks: “How many things could reasonably slow or derail this closing?” We look at 10 categories, score each one, and add them up on a 0–100 scale. Lower total = easier close; higher total = more moving parts and more risk.
Condition & repairs
Occupancy & access
Title complexity
Financing environment
Market demand (HSS)
Seasonality
HOA/COA rules
Price-band liquidity
Appraisal/inspection sensitivity
Logistics (move-date)
Thresholds: Easy ≤35 • Moderate 36–60 • Hard ≥61
Analyst view: full FOS equation
For advisors, analysts, and reviewers who want the symbolic version, we write the composite as:
FOS = R + A + T + F + H + S + O + P + I + LYou do not need this equation to use FOS. The live calculator and CoCI net-sheet preview handle the math for you in the background.
Aggregate snapshot (rolling 90-day, anonymized)
| Segment | Median FOS | p25 | p75 | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vacant, clean title, neutral HSS | 28 | 18 | 36 | Often 7–14 day candidates |
| Owner-occupied, minor repairs | 42 | 33 | 54 | 14-day with light prep |
| Tenant in place, HOA approvals | 57 | 46 | 69 | 21-day with doc coordination |
| Liens/probate, soft HSS, off-season | 72 | 63 | 83 | As-is certainty path recommended |
Based on anonymized transaction-data clusters from the last 90 days; illustrative only and refreshed as new data comes in.
How to read your FOS
Short path (7–14 days) often maximizes net after carry. Avoid over-improving; your timeline is the asset.
Address high-impact items (access, title docs, minor repairs). Choose a plan that reduces fall-through risk while keeping options open.
Finance-driven paths often fail; prioritize certainty and clean execution. Coordinate title early (payoffs, liens, probate) and be deliberate about possession.
FOS + CoCI (how timeline becomes dollars)
Concept: FOS isolates closing friction; CoCI converts that friction and time into net proceeds for specific timelines.
CoCI_Net = AVM − RepairScope − Carry(Time,HSS) − RiskPremium(Spread,HSS,Contingencies)Lower FOS → lower RiskPremium and Carry → higher net on faster, cleaner paths. The calculator below shows this without requiring you to do the math.
Methodology, Validation & Governance
Advanced section: this is the “nerd view” for auditors, co-investors, and industry partners. Sellers can safely skip down to the live calculator and net-sheet preview — you do not need this section to use FOS.
Notation & Variable Definitions
FOS ∈ [0,100]
// Components (band maxima)
R = Condition & Repairs (0–20)
A = Access/Occupancy (0–12)
T = Title Complexity (0–12)
F = Financing Environment (SpreadGuard) (0–12)
H = Market Demand (HSS) (0–10)
S = Seasonality (0–8)
O = HOA/COA Complexity (0–8)
P = Price-Band Liquidity (0–8)
I = Appraisal/Inspection Sensitivity (0–6)
L = Logistics/Move-Date Certainty (0–4)Composite Score & Scaling
By construction, the component maxima sum to 100. Each component maps raw indicators to a bounded point scale.
FOS = R + A + T + F + H + S + O + P + I + LSpreadGuard (F): composite of rate level/volatility, appraisal-gap incidence, and lock fallout, mapped to 0–12 via drift-adjusted percentile bins.
Feature Engineering
- R: Systems/structural states; normalized contractor bids; age-of-systems.
- A: Vacant vs occupied; notice windows; key/lockbox access; tenant constraints.
- T: Payoffs, liens, HOA/HELOC, probate/divorce, POA readiness.
- F: Rate spread vs 12-mo mean; 7/30-day vol; appraisal gaps; lock fallout.
- H: Listing velocity, DOM shifts, absorption, price-reduction incidence.
- S: Seasonal window by MSA; holiday/calendar effects.
- O: Approvals, rental caps, assessments, estoppel timing.
- P: Trade frequency and DOM distribution by micro price-band.
- I: Historic appraisal gap/inspection retrade frequency for property cohort.
- L: Move-date flexibility and possession terms.
Validation Framework
- Construct validity: Spearman correlation of FOS with fall-through incidence, delay days, retrade frequency.
- Predictive validity: Out-of-time AUC for ≤14-day close classification.
- Calibration: Brier score + isotonic calibration for time-to-close strata.
- Stability: Population Stability Index (PSI) quarterly by MSA and price band.
- Sensitivity: Partial dependence of CoCI_Net to FOS under Monte Carlo HSS/repair shocks.
Aggregates only; no personal data. Reviewer bundles available to academic partners under NDA.
Governance, Versioning & Change Log
- Model versions: FOS v1.0, CoCI v1.2, SpreadGuard v0.9.
- Quarterly review board: drift & fairness checks, release notes.
- Issue tracker: documented defects, fixes, and tests (hash refs).
Limitations & Conflicts of Interest
FOS is produced by Local Home Buyers USA / PropTechUSA.ai and may inform internal pricing. To mitigate bias, we publish methods, invite external review, and keep this documentation transparent.
Independent Review Path
We welcome non-affiliated researchers and industry analysts. Email [email protected] to request the reviewer bundle. We will host a public preprint and link accepted peer-review updates here.
FOS Calculator (Live)
Slide each factor to reflect your situation, or use a preset below. The score and impacts update instantly.
Factor Impacts (auto-updating)
Shows each component’s share of your total FOS. Move sliders above to see this change in real time.
| Factor | Points | Impact % of FOS |
|---|
Scenario presets
One click to load a pattern we see often. You can tweak sliders after applying a preset.
Fast access, neutral market
Cooperative access, light work
Access rules and docs
Title work + slow market
CoCI Net Sheet — 7 / 14 / 21 day preview
We compute a risk premium from your FOS (higher FOS → higher risk premium).
Preview
| Timeline | Risk Premium | Carry | Repairs | Estimated Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Use the buttons to generate a preview. | ||||
Illustrative, non-binding preview. Final numbers require verification and title review.
Send me my detailed FOS + CoCI Net Sheet
- Purpose: generate your private FOS + CoCI net sheet with verified inputs.
- Scope: details you submit here, plus UTM parameters for attribution.
- We don’t sell personal data; limited sharing with title/contractor partners only to build your quote.
FAQ
RCI vs. FOS — which one when?
FOS explains how hard the closing is operationally (access, title, timing, logistics). RCI explains how much risk/complexity premium we need to build into the offer structure. Together they feed into CoCI, which turns both into dollar and day trade-offs on the 7 / 14 / 21-day paths.
Does “Easy” mean I should list?
Not necessarily. Low FOS = more options. The best path depends on carry cost, certainty preference, and timing. The CoCI net sheet is designed to make that comparison explicit.
Are these numbers final?
No—this is a preview. Final numbers require verification, contractor bids, and title review.
Change log & data availability
- v1.0 (2025-11-15): Unified page with educational content, methodology, live calculator, impacts, scenarios, and CoCI net-sheet preview.
Aggregated, anonymized data only. Reviewer bundles available under NDA (contact: [email protected]).
© 2025 Local Home Buyers USA • PropTechUSA.ai Research
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