Near a Costco? Your Home Value Bump Depends on Your ZIP Code

Homes within five miles of a newly opened Costco saw property values rise 7.9% in high-density counties and 5.2% in high-income counties — but only in those markets. Everywhere else, the effect was essentially zero. That's the headline finding from a study by Silas Kwok at the Vancouver School of Economics, which examined Costco store openings across the United States between 2002 and 2020.

The number that matters most: 2.5 years. That's the post-opening window in which those value increases were observed. If you're a seller in a dense, affluent market with a relatively new Costco nearby, you may already be sitting on a pricing advantage you haven't fully accounted for.

Why the Lift Only Shows Up in Certain Markets

The research is clear that a Costco opening, on its own, doesn't create value. It confirms it. Cotality chief economist Selma Hepp makes this distinction sharply: Costco tends to open in areas that are already on an upward economic trajectory, meaning the store's arrival is as much a signal of neighborhood strength as it is a driver of it.

Part of the explanation is demographic. Wealthier households — who are more likely to already be pushing prices upward in high-income areas — also tend to be Costco's core customer base, according to YouGov data. In those markets, proximity to the store carries real perceived value. A household can handle fuel, groceries, optometry, and seasonal shopping in a single trip. For time-pressed, dual-income families, that convenience has dollar value, and some of that value gets priced into real estate.

In lower-density or lower-income markets, that calculus doesn't hold. Costco's model is built on members who are already willing to drive for bulk shopping runs — so being one minute away instead of fifteen doesn't move the needle the way proximity to a daily-visit amenity like a grocery store or coffee shop would. That convenience premium simply doesn't get absorbed into home prices the same way.

Where Sellers Can Use This — and Where They Can't

If you're selling in a major metro or a dense, higher-income suburb, and a Costco opened within the last two to three years within five miles of your home, this data is legitimately usable in your pricing conversation. It's not a guarantee of 7.9%, but it's a real, research-backed factor that justifies anchoring your list price toward the stronger end of the comparable range.

The Franklin, Wisconsin example from the source reporting illustrates how the market responds even in anticipation of a Costco. A developer paid more than $51 million in August 2026 to acquire 18 acres near a planned Costco location, specifically citing the store as a neighborhood catalyst. That's institutional money betting on the proximity effect before the store even opens.

If you're in a rural or lower-density market, the research says don't build your pricing strategy around Costco proximity. It's a neutral factor at best, and you're better off leading with other locational strengths.

The Downside Sellers Next Door Need to Price In

There's a meaningful distinction between being near a Costco and being adjacent to one. Andy Kravchenko, founder and CEO of Sterling Home Offer, puts it plainly: delivery trucks arriving before sunrise, parking lot lighting that runs through the night, heavy weekend traffic, and loading dock sightlines from a backyard. Buyers will notice all of it, and they'll negotiate accordingly.

The sweet spot the research and practitioners agree on is being within a few minutes' drive — close enough to claim the convenience, far enough to avoid the operational noise. Sellers whose homes back up to or directly face a Costco property should expect buyers to price in those drawbacks. Proactively accounting for them in your list price is smarter than losing ground in negotiation after inspection.

The five-mile radius referenced in the research is a useful frame. If you're within it, in the right market type, the data supports a proximity premium. If you're on the store's doorstep, the math runs the other direction.

How to Work This Into Your Selling Strategy

The practical takeaway for sellers is straightforward: market context determines whether Costco proximity is a pricing asset, a wash, or a liability. Before you or your agent position it as a selling point, answer two questions. First, is your county above average in population density or household income? Second, when did the nearest Costco open relative to your planned list date?

If the answers point toward a genuine advantage, make sure your agent is pulling comps that reflect post-opening sale prices in the surrounding area, not older sales from before the store came in. That's where the value difference will show up — or not.

Sellers who want a fast read on what their home might fetch today, Costco effect included, can run a number through our instant-offer tool to get a baseline before committing to a list strategy.

The broader lesson here is one that applies well beyond big-box retail: amenity proximity has value only when it matches what buyers in that specific market actually want and can afford to pay for. The data is there. The job is knowing how to apply it to your address.