NAR Sees 4% Sales and Price Growth by Year-End 2026

The National Association of Realtors is calling for a 4 percent increase in both existing-home sales and median home prices by the end of 2026 — and that headline number deserves a closer look from anyone who owns a home and is thinking about selling.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun delivered the forecast Tuesday at the organization's Residential Economic Issues and Trends Forum in Washington, held during NAR's 2026 Legislative Meetings at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center. His message was direct: the first half of 2026 has been slow, but the second half should recover enough to push the full-year numbers into positive territory.

What the Forecast Actually Says — and What It Doesn't

Yun projects the annual average mortgage rate will settle around 6.5 percent for 2026, with rates remaining in the sixes throughout the year. That ceiling on rate relief is a key constraint. Sales volume through the first half of 2026 is running less than 1 percent above last year's pace nationally — well below the 4 percent full-year target — which means the back half of the year needs to carry most of the weight.

On prices, Yun is not forecasting a correction. He pointed to the national median sitting at roughly $430,000 today, up from $90,000 in 1990, and said the long-term appreciation trajectory puts the median on a path toward $1 million within about 25 years. For sellers, that context matters: the price floor has structural support, and the expectation of a 30 percent decline that circulates in some corners of the internet is not backed by the data Yun presented.

Consumer sentiment, he noted, is currently running lower than it was during the 2008–2009 foreclosure crisis — a period when nearly 8 million jobs were lost, unemployment approached 10 percent, and distressed sales dominated the market. Today's fundamentals look nothing like that: foreclosures represent roughly 1 percent of transactions, the stock market is at record highs, and total employment has reached a record high. Yun suggested that political sentiment may be distorting the consumer confidence readings.

What a 4% Price Increase Means for Your Net Proceeds

For a seller, a 4 percent price gain is not uniformly good news — it depends heavily on where you are in the country and when you list.

Geographic job growth is splitting the market. Yun flagged that roughly half of U.S. states currently have fewer employed residents than a year ago, with the Washington, D.C. area among the most affected due to federal workforce reductions. States in the Southeast and Rocky Mountain region are leading on job creation. Buyer demand follows employment, so your local labor market is a more reliable pricing signal than the national average.

On timing, NAR Deputy Chief Economist Jessica Lautz described the current market in blunt terms: you can list a home and have it sit for months, or list the same week on the same street and field multiple offers. That kind of variance means pricing strategy matters more than it did in a uniformly hot market. Overpricing by even a modest margin in a soft micro-market can cost weeks of carrying costs and negotiating leverage.

Yun also raised one policy factor worth watching if you're an older homeowner sitting on significant equity: he identified lifting the capital gains tax exemption on home sales as one of the most direct levers available to bring more supply to market. Current tax exposure is effectively locking some long-tenured owners in place. If that policy changes, expect a supply increase in certain price bands — which could soften prices in those segments.

The First-Time Seller Reality Most People Aren't Talking About

Lautz made a point at the forum that doesn't get nearly enough attention in seller-facing coverage: 17 percent of younger baby boomers who sold a home this year had never sold a property before. The median homeowner has now been in their home 11 years — a figure that has climbed steadily since the Great Recession — which means a growing share of people entering the market right now have no firsthand experience with the process.

This matters because inexperienced sellers often carry inherited assumptions about what selling requires, how timing works, and what their net proceeds will look like. Lautz described a relative who had owned a condo for 20 years and called her with basic questions — including whether she needed to repaint before listing. Many in this cohort, Lautz noted, are getting advice from peers who bought in the 1970s and never moved. That's a significant information gap at a moment when pricing precision and process knowledge directly affect net proceeds.

If you're a long-tenured owner — boomer or otherwise — the most important thing you can do before listing is build a clear picture of your actual equity position, your likely tax exposure, and what a realistic net figure looks like after commissions, closing costs, and any prep work. The 4 percent appreciation figure NAR is projecting won't translate to a 4 percent gain in your pocket without that math done in advance.

How to Use This Forecast in Your Selling Decision

The NAR's forecast gives sellers a useful framework, but it works best as a floor, not a guarantee. Here's how to apply it practically:

• Pricing: The national median is rising, but your ZIP code may not follow. Get a current comparative market analysis that reflects the last 60 to 90 days of closed sales in your specific neighborhood — not the broader MSA.
• Timeline: If the second half of 2026 is supposed to carry the recovery, inventory may tighten as more sellers wait. Listing before that competing inventory arrives could work in your favor.
• Net proceeds: A projected $16,000 gain in typical homeowner wealth this year sounds meaningful. But after transaction costs, the real number depends on your basis, your local market, and your equity position. Run those numbers before setting a list price.
• Rate environment: With rates staying in the 6 percent range, buyer purchasing power isn't expanding. That argues for realistic list prices over aspirational ones, particularly in markets where job growth has stalled.

If you want a baseline number before committing to the listing process, an instant offer gives you a no-obligation data point to anchor your thinking.