2026 Housing Equity Map: State Appreciation Baseline (FHFA 2025Q2)
A research-grade, 51-row dataset capturing 1-year, quarter, and five-year appreciation by state (FHFA HPI, PO, SA). Download the data, stress-test scenarios, and use our playbook to turn equity into better decisions.
- 51-row baseline (YoY • QoQ • 5-yr)
- CSV • XLS • JSON downloads
- EEAT author + long-form explainer
Mortgage Rate Context (30-yr FRM)
Reads /data/pmms.json when present; otherwise shows a safe fallback value.
Compare Two States
Dataset: State Appreciation Baseline Entering 2026
Source: FHFA HPI, Purchase-Only, Seasonally Adjusted through 2025Q2. “Five-Year” reflects cumulative change over the last five years. Use downloads for full analysis.
| State | 1-Year % | Quarter % | 5-Year % |
|---|
Tip: Use the CSV for BI tools, the XLS for quick spreadsheet work (SpreadsheetML), and the JSON for web apps or internal dashboards.
What the 2026 Baseline Says (at a glance)
- Near-term momentum: The Northeast leads YoY; several Sun Belt states cooled at the margin but retain strong 5-yr stacks.
- Five-year depth: Broad equity cushions remain sizable—important for net sheets, concessions, and move-now vs. carry decisions.
- Execution beats guessing: Pair this dataset with payment math and months-of-supply to price and time with discipline.
About the Author
Founder & nationwide operator. Justin leads acquisitions and data strategy across 40+ markets, applying equity and affordability analytics to deliver speed, certainty, and transparent options for sellers—including probate, pre-foreclosure, and as-is sales.
How to Use the 2026 State Baseline to Make Real Decisions
Equity turns chaos into choices. Entering 2026, the distribution of equity across states remains high—but uneven. That’s why our baseline tracks three deltas that matter to sellers and advisors: 1-year momentum, quarter direction, and five-year depth. Together, they frame whether you should go now, prep then go, or secure a certain exit.
1) Read the momentum without overfitting
Strong YoY prints tell you buyer willingness to pay hasn’t vanished; a soft quarter print might be digestion, seasonality, or a localized insurance/tax friction. When both soften while five-year depth is average, tighten pricing bands and manage renegotiation risk up front (pre-inspection, documentation, lender-friendly timelines).
2) Translate percentage moves into net dollars
A 2% “move-now” discount can outperform waiting when carry costs, seasonality, and renegotiation risk are priced honestly. Your net sheet should show both routes in dollars: list-today vs. carry-for-X-months, including utilities, taxes, insurance renewals, and probability of a second round of repairs.
3) Align equity with the local absorption tape
Track new listings vs. pendings and months-of-supply (MoS). Under ~3 MoS, speed is a feature. At ~5–6, be the best value on day one or budget for weeks. Equity protects you from small errors; MoS punishes drift.
4) Playbook for sellers
- Price to payment math. Buyers buy monthly payments. Use current rates and your target buyer’s DTI realities to set price bands.
- Remove uncertainty. Deliver clean inspection reports, insurance binders, and HOA docs in your data room. Fewer surprises → stronger net.
- Have a certain exit option. In probate/heavy-repair cases, a 7–14 day exit often maximizes certainty-adjusted net.
5) Limits & updates
State averages mask neighborhood distributions; use comps, DOM, and MoS to localize. We refresh after each FHFA quarterly release; downloads always carry the latest baseline.
Want a Clear Net & Timeline? (7–14 Day Close Possible)
2026–2027 Equity Playbook: Turning the Baseline Into Decisions
This section distills the dataset into actions. Use it to brief stakeholders, align pricing and timing, and turn equity into clean executions—whether you list, hold, or take a certain 7–14 day exit.
What’s Strong
- Five-year depth remains substantial across most states—ample cushion for concessions and repairs.
- Northeast momentum leads the YoY tape; Midwest is steady with attractive payment-to-income ratios.
- Buyer payment math improves quickly with small rate relief—translate moves into $/mo, not headlines.
What’s Soft
- Quarter prints turned mixed in several Sun Belt markets after outsized multi-year gains.
- Insurance/tax friction in coastal/cat-exposed counties can overwhelm small price moves.
- Policy-sensitive pockets (e.g., DC) require tighter pricing and faster execution.
What to Watch
- 30-yr FRM vs. wage growth: sideways rates + rising wages = slow affordability repair.
- Months of Supply (MoS): < 3 favors speed; 5–6 requires day-one value leadership.
- Insurance normalization: a single renewal during a long listing can crush net.
Strategy by Situation
- Go now with price bands written to buyer payment math at today’s rate.
- De-risk with pre-inspection, insurance binder, HOA docs, and clear repair policy.
- Protect net with a time box: if no contract in 21 days, execute step-down plan.
- Tighten prep and media; become best value on day one or budget for time.
- Track MoS weekly; if MoS rises and showings fall, pull the price lever early.
- Compare net: 2% move-now discount vs. 2–3 months carry + renegotiation odds.
- Certainty often wins: a clean 7–14 day exit can beat a retail path after carry, risk, and slippage.
- Bid the rehab truthfully—scope creep and time value usually erase theoretical premiums.
- Lock dates to avoid tax/insurance renewals during marketing or rehab.
- Use equity once: prioritize safety, envelope, and systems over tastes.
- Stress budget for job changes/insurance shocks before cash-out or HELOC.
- Sequence projects that move the appraisal needle or remove sale blockers.
- Midwest/Mountain steady paths suit buy-and-hold; price-to-income remains friendlier.
- Sun Belt digestion favors value-add with conservative exit cap and insurance underwriting.
- Underwrite time—permit/inspection queues are macro-agnostic and kill IRR.
5 KPIs to Decide in One Meeting
- YoY vs. QoQ: Are they confirming or contradicting?
- Five-year depth: How much cushion do you truly have?
- MoS & absorption: New listings vs. pendings (30/60-day).
- Payment thresholds: What price clears median buyer at today’s rate?
- Carry calendar: Insurance/tax renewals, HOA cycles, utility minimums.
Price-to-Payment Worksheet (Inline)
Risk & Slippage (Budget What Actually Happens)
- Re-trade risk: Plan for 0.5–1.0% renegotiation probability in soft quarters.
- Time drift: Every unproductive week risks an insurance/tax event or HOA penalty.
- Scope creep: Repairs grow when you open walls—hold a 10–15% reserve.
- Financing attrition: Rate locks expire; add buffer for re-underwrites.
Plain-English Glossary
- YoY
- Year-over-year % change in the FHFA HPI (Purchase-Only, SA).
- QoQ
- Quarter-over-quarter % change—near-term direction check.
- Five-year
- Cumulative appreciation over five years—your depth cushion.
- MoS
- Months of Supply: balance between buyers and sellers (3 is “tight”).
- Payment math
- The monthly amount that clears DTI underwriting—not just rate alone.
Methodology & Auditability
Transparency first: this section lets you reproduce and audit our baseline.
| Component | What We Do | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Source | FHFA House Price Index, Purchase-Only, Seasonally Adjusted (state-level), through 2025Q2. | Common lender/risk standard; excludes cash-out refis. |
| Measures | OneYearPct (YoY), QuarterPct (QoQ), FiveYearPct (5-yr cumulative). | Momentum, near-term direction, structural depth. |
| Transformations | Direct % changes from FHFA series; we do not blend with CPI or deflators. | Equity & payments are nominal; cleaner planning signal. |
| Coverage | 50 states + DC (51 rows). | National comparability at a glance. |
| Cadence | Refresh within 5 business days of FHFA quarterly releases. | Stable but timely—no weekly whiplash. |
| Quality Checks | Range checks (−25% to +100%), monotonic 5-yr sanity, null/NaN guard. | Catches series breaks & ingest errors. |
| Limitations | No within-state granularity; no property-type split; no insurance/tax overlay. | Pair with comps, MoS, and real carrying costs. |
Reproducibility Notes
- Use FHFA HPI PO SA state indices; compute %Δ vs. prior year, prior quarter, and 20-quarter span.
- If a state’s index is revised, we re-emit the dataset with a new entry in the Changelog.
- We keep a frozen copy per release to ensure citations remain stable for journalists.
Data Dictionary
- State
- U.S. state or District of Columbia (proper name).
- code
- Two-letter postal abbreviation (e.g., NY, CA, TX).
- slug
- SEO-friendly state path (e.g.,
new-york). - OneYearPct
- Year-over-year % change from FHFA HPI PO SA.
- QuarterPct
- Quarter-over-quarter % change from FHFA HPI PO SA.
- FiveYearPct
- Cumulative % change over the trailing five years.
Units: percentage points. Rounding: shown to two decimals for readability; downloads contain full precision available from the release.
Embed & Attribution Kit
Attribution
Please credit: “Local Home Buyers USA — 2026 State Appreciation Baseline (FHFA 2025Q2)”. Link to the article URL. Do not alter numbers without re-running the same FHFA release.
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