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LESI • MACRO TAPE
LESI · National 72.4 ▼ 1.3 Mixed / Stable Stability 79.1 ▼ 0.4 Labor Momentum 63.7 ▼ 2.0 Permits / Starts Risk 41.3 ▲ 0.8 Delinquencies 30yr Fixed 6.8% Rate Context New Listings YoY +4.2% ▲ Supply Inventory Delinq. Index 1.7% ▲ 0.2 Consumer Stress LESI · National 72.4 ▼ 1.3 Mixed / Stable Stability 79.1 ▼ 0.4 Labor Momentum 63.7 ▼ 2.0 Permits / Starts Risk 41.3 ▲ 0.8 Delinquencies 30yr Fixed 6.8% Rate Context New Listings YoY +4.2% ▲ Supply Inventory Delinq. Index 1.7% ▲ 0.2 Consumer Stress
Research

Local Economic Stability Index (LESI) — Make the Safest Move in Your Market

LESI distills Labor Stability, Housing Momentum, and Consumer Risk into a single score. Sellers use it to compare listing versus a guaranteed cash offer—factually, not emotionally.

Get Your Personalized LESI Report How We Calculate It

Authored by

Local Economic Stability Index featured image
On this page: Methodology • Interactive Lab • Get Your Report • FAQ • Datasets • Related Research

Fewer Surprises

LESI flags rising unemployment, delinquencies, or cooling permits before they hit headlines.

List vs. Cash—With Math

Pair your LESI tier with a Certainty Premium band so you compare apples to apples.

Transparent Methodology

Built on public U.S. datasets and a documented, repeatable scoring model.

LESI chart 1 LESI chart 2 Market stability visuals
Methodology

How We Calculate LESI

LESI is a 0–100 index combining three sub-indexes. Each metric is normalized to its 5-year local range, directionally adjusted (higher-is-better or lower-is-better), smoothed with a 3-month average, and bucketed:

  • Stability (45%): Unemployment trend, Non-farm payroll employment, Job openings vs. hires gap.
  • Momentum (30%): Housing permits, Construction spending, New single-family sales.
  • Risk (25%): Mortgage/credit delinquencies, Regional CPI, Municipal debt per capita.

Scoring Tiers

80–100
Very Stable
65–79
Stable
50–64
Mixed
35–49
Unstable
0–34
High Risk

Suggested Certainty Premium

A pricing band used to compare listing vs. a guaranteed cash offer:

  • 80–100 → 0–2%
  • 65–79 → 1–3%
  • 50–64 → 2–5%
  • 35–49 → 4–7%
  • 0–34 → 6–10%

Gauge Preview

Example visualization. Your personalized report uses your ZIP-to-MSA data.

Interactive

LESI Scenario Lab — See How the Score Reacts

Drag the sliders to simulate different local conditions. Watch how LESI and the suggested Certainty Premium change as labor, housing, and consumer risk move around.

Labor Stability 78 / 100

Jobs, unemployment trend, and job openings versus hires in your area.

Housing Momentum 68 / 100

Permits, construction spending, and new home sales.

Consumer Risk Pressure 32 / 100

Delinquencies, inflation, and debt loads (higher numbers mean more stress).

This sandbox is an education tool. Your official LESI is calculated from live government datasets and can differ from these sliders.

Balanced · List vs. Cash

Scenario LESI: 72 / 100 · Stable
Suggested Certainty Premium: 1–3%

Inputs · Stability 78 · Momentum 68 · Risk Pressure 32

Balanced conditions. You can weigh a traditional listing against certainty options like a cash or partnership offer and see which fits your timeline.

Ready for the real numbers? Scroll to the short form below and we’ll run this from actual BLS, Census, and Fed data for your ZIP.

Free Report

Get Your Personalized LESI + Cash-vs-List Comparison

Enter your ZIP and email. We’ll send a concise PDF with your local score, tier, and an apples-to-apples net comparison vs. a guaranteed cash offer.

By submitting, you agree to our Privacy Policy. We’ll never sell your data.

Why it matters

Make a Data-Certain Decision

LESI helps sellers avoid costly surprises (price cuts, lender fallout, appraisal misses). It also helps justify certainty: when risk rises, a guaranteed cash offer can net more after time, fees, and concessions.

Methods at a glance

  • 5-year rolling min-max normalization per geography
  • Seasonally adjusted where available; otherwise YoY trends
  • 3-month smoothing for noisy series (permits, sales)
  • Metro → county → state fallback with proportional reweights
  • Outlier clamp at 3.5σ; low-confidence flag on missing data

Sellers

Know when listing risk rises and where a cash offer nets better after time/repairs.

Agents

Set expectations with a neutral economic context—reduce fallout.

Investors

Screen metros by Stability vs. Risk to prioritize pipeline.

Data & Licensing

U.S. Public Datasets We Use

All government sources are public-domain unless noted. We combine them into our authored LESI Methodology Dataset and research notes.

  • BLS JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover) — openings & hires rates.
  • BLS LAUS/CES — unemployment rate, non-farm payroll employment.
  • Census Building Permits Survey — housing units authorized.
  • U.S. Census & HUD — new single-family home sales (national/region).
  • Construction Spending (Census) — total spend (state/metro proxies).
  • Regional CPI (BLS) — inflation by metro/region.
  • Mortgage & Consumer Delinquencies — FRB/industry releases (state/MSA).
  • Municipal Debt per Capita — CAFRs/state datasets (where available).
  • Philadelphia Fed State Coincident Indexes — methodology reference.

LESI compilation © Local Home Buyers USA — Research (PropTechUSA.ai) • Licensed CC BY 4.0. For licensing/API access, email sales@localhomebuyersusa.com.

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Local Economic Stability Index (LESI)?

LESI is a 0–100 score that blends labor stability, housing momentum, and consumer risk so homeowners can compare listing vs. a guaranteed cash offer with data, not guesswork.

How often is LESI updated?

Monthly, with some quarterly series forward-filled until the next release. We apply 3-month smoothing to reduce noise.

Where does the data come from?

From U.S. public sources (BLS, Census, Philadelphia Fed, HUD) and standard industry delinquency series. We author the compilation, normalization, and scoring.

Will my score guarantee a specific price?

No. LESI is an economic context tool. It informs risk and timeline. Your property’s condition and micro-market still matter.

What is a “Certainty Premium”?

An estimate (in %) that helps compare net proceeds from a traditional listing to a guaranteed cash offer in your market conditions.

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Real-World Seller Insights

Fresh how-tos and market tips from Local Home Buyers USA.

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