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RRI 2026 • Retrade Risk Index™
Whitepaper • Dataset • Index • Interactive Explorer • Downloadable CSV/JSON

The 2026 Retrade Risk Index™

Sellers don't lose money on "price." They lose money on failed contracts, late-stage renegotiation, and the uncertainty discount (credits, repairs, appraisal gaps, insurance delays, financing failures). The Retrade Risk Index™ (RRI) measures the close reliability climate by state—using a transparent dataset you can audit.

Version: 2025-12-19 Coverage: 50 states + DC Sources: Redfin • Zillow • NAR • Freddie Mac Outputs: Risk Score (0–100) + Reliability Grade (A–F)
States Loaded
51
50 states + DC with live data
Median Retrade Risk
—
Higher = less reliable contract climate
Highest Risk State
—
—
National Fall-Through
15.3%
Redfin July 2025 (Record High)

At a Glance: Highest vs. Lowest Risk

HIGHEST RETRADE RISK
Florida
Score: 68 • Grade: D
19.8% fall-through • 75 DOM • 5.2 mo supply
MOST RELIABLE CLOSE CLIMATE
New York
Score: 18 • Grade: A
9.5% fall-through • 5.5% concessions • 42 DOM
What "retrade risk" actually means
  • Fall-through risk: contracts that fail after going pending (15.3% nationally in July 2025—a record)
  • Renegotiation risk: late-stage credits, repairs, or appraisal gap outcomes
  • Time risk: longer DOM increases the probability of "deal fatigue"
  • Signal stack: price cuts + concessions + supply pressure
Local Home Buyers USA — powered by the research of PropTechUSA.ai.
What this whitepaper lets you do
  • Quantify your market's close reliability climate (A–F)
  • Model the uncertainty discount using concessions + retrade risk
  • Give sellers a real alternative: Net Certainty (close probability × net × timeline)
Get a Net Certainty Offer View Seller Friction Index™

📱 Interactive App: Retrade Risk + Net Certainty Simulator

Select a state to see its retrade risk profile. Enter an offer price to simulate how concessions + retrade risk compress net proceeds.

State Risk Reader • pick a state
51 states loaded • v2025-12-19
Retrade Risk Score: —
Reliability Grade: —
Fall-through rate: —
Concessions rate: —
Price-cut share: —
DOM / Supply: —
Uncertainty Discount: —
Net Certainty Est.: —
Net Certainty Est. uses your state's concession rate and risk score to simulate how uncertainty may compress net proceeds. Formula: Offer × (1 − concession% − retradeDiscount%)
Signal Stack • what moves first
  • Price cuts rise before sellers emotionally reprice
  • Concessions rise when buyers gain leverage (hidden cuts)
  • Fall-through rises when underwriting/appraisal/insurance friction spikes
  • Net Certainty becomes the competitive edge
NATIONAL SIGNALS (Q1-Q4 2025)
📈 Fall-through: 15.3% (record)
📈 Concessions: 44.4% (near-record)
📈 Price cuts: 26.9%
📉 30Y Rate: 6.85% (volatile)
Get My Net Certainty Offer Read: Retrade Economy

📊 Index Explorer (Crawlable + Auditable)

Search, filter, and sort. All 50 states + DC with real data from Redfin, Zillow, and NAR.

51 rows
State ↕ Risk Score ↕ Grade ↕ Fall-Through % ↕ Concessions % ↕ Price Cuts % ↕ DOM ↕ Mo Supply ↕ Avg Conc % ↕ 30Y Rate ↕
Data Sources: Fall-through & concessions from Redfin (July 2025, Q1 2025); Price cuts from Zillow Research (Q4 2024–Q1 2025); DOM & supply from Redfin/NAR state data; 30Y rate from Freddie Mac PMMS (Dec 2025). State-level figures are aggregated from metro data where direct state reporting unavailable.

🔬 Methodology (Transparent + Replicable)

RRI is a weighted composite of normalized metrics (0–100). Higher values = higher retrade risk / lower close reliability.

Component weights (v1)
  • Fall-through rate: 35% — the reliability core
  • Concessions rate: 20% — hidden price cuts / deal-term pressure
  • Price-cut share: 15% — stress signal
  • Days on market: 15% — liquidity & time risk
  • Months' supply: 15% — inventory leverage

Scores normalized 0–100 within dataset distribution, then weighted and summed.

Reliability Grades
  • A (0–20): Most reliable close climate
  • B (21–40): Above average reliability
  • C (41–60): Average / mixed signals
  • D (61–80): Below average reliability
  • F (81–100): Highest retrade/renegotiation risk
Get an Offer Built for Certainty Compare All Selling Options

📖 Data Dictionary

Field Source Meaning Use in RRI
fallThroughRate Redfin July 2025 % of pending sales that fell through 35% weight — reliability core
concessionRate Redfin Q1 2025 % of sales with seller concessions 20% weight — hidden price cuts
priceCutShare Zillow Q4 2024 % of active listings with a price cut 15% weight — stress signal
dom Redfin/NAR Q4 2024 Median days on market 15% weight — liquidity/time risk
monthsSupply Redfin/NAR Q1 2025 Inventory relative to sales pace 15% weight — inventory leverage
avgConcessionPct Estimated Typical concession size as % of price Used in Net Certainty calc
rate30yr Freddie Mac PMMS Current 30-year fixed rate Context metric (not weighted)

⬇️ Downloads

Download the complete dataset with computed Risk Scores and Grades. Generated client-side from embedded data.

Get Offer →
Suggested naming: retrade-risk-index-2026-YYYY-MM.csv + latest alias: retrade-risk-index-2026-latest.csv

❓ FAQ

What is "retrade risk"?

Retrade risk is the probability an accepted offer won't hold: the contract fails (fall-through), the buyer re-trades the price after inspection/appraisal, or credits and concessions expand late in the process. RRI quantifies the close reliability climate using publicly-sourced data from Redfin, Zillow, and NAR.

Why is Florida's risk score so high?

Florida combines multiple compounding risk factors: high fall-through rates (19-21% in major metros like Jacksonville 19.9%, Tampa 19.5%, Fort Lauderdale 21.3%), elevated insurance costs driving buyer cold feet, 5.2 months of supply (highest tier nationally), 75+ day median DOM, and 32%+ price cut share. The state has seen inventory surge 35%+ YoY while demand softens due to insurance and HOA cost crises.

Why does Washington have low fall-through but high concessions?

Washington (particularly Seattle) shows an interesting paradox: low fall-through rate (10.2%) but the highest concession rate nationally (71.3% in Q1 2025, +34.9 ppts YoY). This is because tight inventory (1.9 months supply) and fast DOM (42 days) mean deals close, but buyers extract maximum concessions as leverage. The condo market is particularly affected by skyrocketing HOA fees and insurance costs.

Where does the data come from?

Fall-through rates come from Redfin's Home Purchase Cancellations Report (July 2025). Concession rates from Redfin's Seller Concessions Report (Q1 2025). Price cut share from Zillow Research (Q4 2024–Q1 2025). Days on market and months supply from Redfin's state market tracker and NAR existing home sales data. 30-year rate from Freddie Mac PMMS (December 2025). All sources are linked in the methodology section.

Is this an appraisal or home valuation tool?

No. This is a market reliability index. It's designed to help sellers understand close probability and net certainty—not set list price. The Net Certainty simulator is a planning tool, not an appraisal.

How often is the data updated?

The current dataset reflects Q4 2024 through Q1 2025 data, with the fall-through rate from July 2025 (the most recent Redfin report). We recommend refreshing the dataset quarterly as new Redfin/Zillow reports are published.

📚 Primary Data Sources

Local Home Buyers USA — powered by the research of PropTechUSA.ai.