Home-Sales Growth Forecast Cut to 2% or Less for 2026

Sales and price growth are now expected to stay near 2%

Existing-home sales and prices are now forecast to grow by roughly 2% or less in 2026 compared with 2025, according to National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. That is a major reduction from his November projection that sales would climb 14% and median prices would rise 4% this year.

Yun had already lowered the sales forecast to 4% in April. His latest revision reflects a market constrained by mortgage rates that have remained above 7% since the final week of September. Realtor.com News reported that Yun initially expected rates to average about 6.5% during 2026.

The forecast for newly built homes is weaker: Yun expects new-home sales to fall 5% from last year. Separately, Mortgage Bankers Association Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni projected rates near 7.3% for the remainder of 2026 and above 7% through 2027. Realtor.com's own midyear forecast called for existing-home prices to increase just 1.2% by year-end.

These are national forecasts, not promises about any individual neighborhood. But the direction is useful for sellers: high borrowing costs are continuing to limit how much buyers can pay, even where inventory remains tight.

Pricing above the market carries a bigger penalty

A market with little sales growth does not mean every seller must cut the asking price. It does mean there is less support for pricing based on hoped-for appreciation. Buyers are evaluating the monthly payment created by the price, mortgage rate, taxes, insurance and association dues. A listing can look reasonable against last year's comparable sales and still feel unaffordable today.

Sellers should begin with the most recent closed sales, then examine active competition and pending listings. Closed sales show what buyers previously accepted. Active listings show the choices buyers have now. Pending properties can reveal which price bands are actually attracting offers, although the final terms will not be public until closing.

Pay particular attention to comparable homes that needed price reductions. Their original list prices can expose the point at which buyers stopped engaging. If several similar homes sat for weeks and then moved only after reductions, launching at that rejected price creates an avoidable risk.

Aspirational pricing can also damage the first weeks of marketing, when a listing usually receives its broadest exposure. If the home later needs a cut, buyers may wonder whether another reduction is coming or whether the property has an undisclosed problem. In a rate-sensitive market, a defensible opening price is usually more valuable than leaving extra room to negotiate.

Timeline planning should assume a selective buyer pool

The revised forecast points to modest transaction growth, not a broad rush of buyers. Sellers coordinating a move, purchase or job relocation should therefore build their plans around local market time rather than a national prediction of recovery.

Ask for neighborhood-level data covering days on market, the share of listings with price cuts, sale-to-list price ratios and failed or withdrawn listings. Segment that information by property type and price range. A starter home may face a different demand pattern than a high-end property a few streets away.

Preparation time also belongs in the schedule. Repairs, cleaning, photography, disclosure work and title issues can delay a launch before the home ever reaches buyers. After accepting an offer, financing, appraisal, inspection and document review introduce additional timing risk. A seller who needs proceeds by a particular date should work backward from that deadline and leave room for setbacks.

It is also risky to postpone a sale solely because rates might decline in 2027. Yun said lower rates could bring sidelined buyers back, but that outcome remains conditional. Lower borrowing costs can improve demand, yet they can also encourage more owners to list, increasing competition. A future rate shift does not automatically translate into a higher net for every seller.

Seller net matters more than the headline sale price

With national price growth expected to remain muted, sellers should compare strategies by estimated net proceeds rather than list price alone. The basic calculation starts with the expected sale price and subtracts mortgage payoff, agreed buyer concessions, commissions or fees, transfer charges, taxes, repairs, moving expenses and carrying costs.

Carrying costs deserve particular attention when demand is restrained. Another month on the market can mean another mortgage payment, utility bills, insurance, taxes, maintenance and possibly association dues. Holding out for a slightly higher offer may not improve the final result if the delay consumes the difference.

Concessions should be evaluated the same way. A buyer may request closing-cost assistance or funds that support a mortgage-rate buydown. That can be preferable to a larger price reduction in some transactions, but only after the seller compares the net proceeds and considers appraisal limits. The cleanest offer is not always the one with the highest number at the top.

Sellers should prepare more than one scenario before listing: a target outcome, a conservative outcome and a time-sensitive outcome. Each should include likely proceeds and a decision point for changing the price or terms. That framework reduces the temptation to react emotionally after a quiet week.

The revised 2026 outlook does not say homes cannot sell or appreciate. It says the national market has less momentum than economists expected. For sellers, the practical response is straightforward: price from current evidence, allow enough time for a selective buyer pool and judge every decision by the amount left after the transaction is complete.