When people talk about “the market,” they usually mean headlines: a big crash, a big boom, or an eye-catching mortgage rate. The past two decades show something different. It is the interaction of these three levers—price, payment, and time—that decides who is in control.
In the 2005–2008 run-up, prices surged while lending standards loosened. Buyers stretched, banks looked the other way, and payment risk quietly built up under the surface. Once rates ticked up and adjustable loans reset, millions of households were suddenly exposed.
By contrast, the pandemic era was defined by a shock to where people wanted to live and how fast they wanted to get there. Ultra-low rates meant buyers could justify higher prices, and remote work opened new markets almost overnight. If you listed in that window with a clean, move-in-ready property, you had extraordinary leverage.
Today’s high-rate environment is a different puzzle: payments are heavy for new buyers, but existing owners with low fixed mortgages are reluctant to move. That creates a strange combination of soft demand and tight supply. In plain English: fewer transactions, but not the across-the-board price collapse some predicted.