window_start,window_end,mortgage_rate_change_bps,mbs_spread_change_bps,affordability_payment_change_pct,sales_volume_change_next_12m_pct,inventory_change_next_12m_pct,case_shiller_change_next_12m_pct,lock_in_share_sub4_pct,bdi_band,rci_band,fos_band,notes
2024-01-01,2024-12-31,-85,-20,-6.2,3.8,2.1,1.2,58.0,45-55 (Mid),55-65 (Elevated),40-55 (Tight),"Small cuts, spreads sticky; mobility limited"
2025-01-01,2025-12-31,-110,-35,-9.4,7.9,6.5,3.0,50.0,60-72 (High),45-55 (Moderate),55-70 (Easing),~100 bps drop + mobility; listing nets improve
2025-07-01,2026-06-30,-65,5,-4.1,2.2,1.0,0.6,48.3,50-60 (Balanced),50-60 (Balanced),50-60 (Balanced),"Uneven pass-through; spreads widen, mixed effect"